By Richard B. Jones

ISBN-10: 0470592419

ISBN-13: 9780470592410

Discover ways to follow the basic facets of risk—regardless of the situation

We'd all wish to dispose of hazard from our decision-making, yet regrettably this aim is unachievable. No unmarried across-the-board resolution holds the facility to take on the entire surprises existence throws at us. up to we strive to prevent them, damaging results will unavoidably take place. . . occasionally. but there are belongings you can do to aid stack the deck on your want. You don't must be a statistician or mathematician to develop into a professional in dealing with the future's uncertainty. 20% probability of Rain allows the reader to shape a strong figuring out of probability that may be utilized to decision-making by:

  • Teaching the elemental thoughts of hazard throughout the broad use of functional occasions to assist the reader practice what's discovered to a wide selection of situations
  • Providing genuine illustrations of chance research, hazard overview, and probability administration, complementing the rigorous arithmetic taught in so much chance courses
  • Communicating advanced possibility suggestions in an easy, transparent, and fascinating demeanour utilizing real-life examples and problems
  • Including case reports, from NASA and different industries, supplying the root for extra discussions and permitting the reader to determine genuine purposes of risk-based decision-making
  • From members to companies to govt companies, hazard is the typical denominator. profitable ideas for handling the future's uncertainty or hazard could appear uncomplicated and simple at the floor, but they are often super advanced and refined. knowing the simplest how you can hire those multi-faceted strategies is important within the face of the ups and downs that loom in the back of each selection we make. lifestyles is actually a sequence of selections and 20% probability of Rain might help deal with the future's uncertainty in today's dynamic, advanced, and shrinking world.

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    Extra resources for 20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk

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    Clarity The single most important reason why headscratchers—projects, initiatives, problem solving, decisions, or strategies—go awry is that the headscratcher itself—the situation, issue, or goal—isn’t clear in the first place. Clarity allows us to define what the issue, problem, or goal really is. ” Conclusions After you are clear on what issue you must address, you have to figure out what to do about it. Conclusions are solutions and a list of actions (to-dos) related to your issue. indd 16 24-02-2014 15:01:06 The Framework and Tools 17 Decisions Once you come to a conclusion about what actions to take, you have to actually decide to take the action—and do it.

    He comes back and asks for more tape. You give him more tape. He comes back and asks you for some string. You give him string. Then you see him carry out a package that has all kinds of tape and string on it. ” You run the report. ” You run that report. ” You run that report, and as you deliver the report, you notice that your manager is creating a PowerPoint presentation titled Sales Forecast. ” Your manager confirms. ” Interactions such as these happen all the time. We often ask others to do something without bothering to give them the reason why we want those actions performed.

    Conclusions: You create a solution for the headscratcher. • Decisions: You take action on your conclusion. Within each of the framework components of clarity, conclusions, and decisions, there are numerous critical thinking tools and techniques to guide your thinking. As you use and practice these tools, your problem-solving and decision-making skills will improve. This will directly yield higher quality problem solving, decision making, and creative results. Now to begin. We start with clarity and the tools to get clear.

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    20% Chance of Rain: Exploring the Concept of Risk by Richard B. Jones


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